African countries are poised to feel the pain of rising fuel and wheat prices, but trade and investment disruption will be more muted, say, analysts.

Eight days into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the fallout of the war and unprecedented sanctions on Moscow are shaking global supply chains and financial markets.

With Russia, a major producer of commodities such as oil, gas, aluminum, palladium, nickel, wheat, and corn, sanctions and market concerns about the war’s disruption of supply chains have caused commodity prices to soar.

Surging commodity prices will create winners and losers across Africa and the aworld.
On the continent, the countries most vulnerable to the conflict are those which import a large share of the wheat they consume, like Egypt. Meanwhile, African oil importers like Kenya will also feel the heat of surging oil prices as Russia, one of the world’s largest exporters of crude is hit by sanctions, disruptions to energy exports, and a potential embargo.

Commodity exporters, like Nigeria and Angola, are likely to be the biggest winners of the war as the supply constraint-induced commodity price boom that began in 2021 will be prolonged, says Renaissance Capital, a Moscow-headquartered bank.